Kevin Rudd's always sort of gone against the 2027-or-bust grain in his books and speeches, in favor of late 2020s early 2030s which seems a lot more sensible and epistemically rigorous.
This line is completely false: "On this issue, President Lai Ching-te has been much more provocative than his predecessors, even the last DPP President Tsai Ing-wen, in his rhetoric"
He has embraced the same ROC (Taiwan) framing used by Tsai and his other predecessors, coming around to an actually very traditionally pan-Blue perspective defending the ROC sovereignty, even emphasizing the ROC being older than the PRC and embracing the ROC's role in World War II. It is China that has emphasized this false narrative that Lai is being more "provocative." They are simply moving the goal posts year by year.
Not false at all. I gave two examples in the post. Another example: the distinguishing between Taiwan and China 中國 as opposed to Tsai using more diplomatic language like 對岸 or 北京當局, from the moment of his inaugural speech.
["China's attempts to challenge the regional status quo have drawn significant international attention. Taiwan, situated on the front lines of the Western Pacific, naturally faces immense pressure.
In recent times, China's unilateral verbal and military intimidation and diplomatic suppression have not only damaged cross-strait relations but also seriously challenged the status quo of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."]
The ICG report was roundly criticized here when it came out for its falsehoods. Tsai repeatedly referred to China as 中國, and Lai has actually called it 大陸 as well. Your examples are complete nonsense. The KMT was executing people suspected of belonging working for 共匪, are you seriously going to say "hostile foreign force" is more incendiary than "communist bandits?"
Absolutely concur with the main thrust of your analysis Cindy: Trump hasn’t sold out Taiwan… yet! Either by accident or by design, his off-the-cuff comments stuck to the tested ‘strategic ambiguity’ script.
I also expect this tranche of weapons sales will be approved. Uber China hawk Marco Rubio’s inclusion on the trip (and his bizarre tracksuit cosplay on Air Force 1) was a strong signal for me that nothing untoward would be agreed to behind closed doors.
Great summary of the real bottom line. Thank you.
Kevin Rudd's always sort of gone against the 2027-or-bust grain in his books and speeches, in favor of late 2020s early 2030s which seems a lot more sensible and epistemically rigorous.
This line is completely false: "On this issue, President Lai Ching-te has been much more provocative than his predecessors, even the last DPP President Tsai Ing-wen, in his rhetoric"
He has embraced the same ROC (Taiwan) framing used by Tsai and his other predecessors, coming around to an actually very traditionally pan-Blue perspective defending the ROC sovereignty, even emphasizing the ROC being older than the PRC and embracing the ROC's role in World War II. It is China that has emphasized this false narrative that Lai is being more "provocative." They are simply moving the goal posts year by year.
Not false at all. I gave two examples in the post. Another example: the distinguishing between Taiwan and China 中國 as opposed to Tsai using more diplomatic language like 對岸 or 北京當局, from the moment of his inaugural speech.
It's not a Beijing talking point: here is the Crisis Group's analysis https://www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia/north-east-asia/taiwan-strait-china/342-widening-schism-across-taiwan-strait
Let's just take one of Tsai's national day speeches as an example:
"中國試圖挑戰區域現狀的作為，已經引起國際社會高度地關注。臺灣位處西太平洋第一線，自然承受巨大的壓力。
這段時間以來，中國單方面的文攻武嚇和外交打壓，不但傷害了兩岸關係，更嚴重挑戰了臺海和平穩定的現狀。"
Just admit you are wrong on this one.
["China's attempts to challenge the regional status quo have drawn significant international attention. Taiwan, situated on the front lines of the Western Pacific, naturally faces immense pressure.
In recent times, China's unilateral verbal and military intimidation and diplomatic suppression have not only damaged cross-strait relations but also seriously challenged the status quo of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."]
https://www.president.gov.tw/News/23769
The ICG report was roundly criticized here when it came out for its falsehoods. Tsai repeatedly referred to China as 中國, and Lai has actually called it 大陸 as well. Your examples are complete nonsense. The KMT was executing people suspected of belonging working for 共匪, are you seriously going to say "hostile foreign force" is more incendiary than "communist bandits?"
Absolutely concur with the main thrust of your analysis Cindy: Trump hasn’t sold out Taiwan… yet! Either by accident or by design, his off-the-cuff comments stuck to the tested ‘strategic ambiguity’ script.
I also expect this tranche of weapons sales will be approved. Uber China hawk Marco Rubio’s inclusion on the trip (and his bizarre tracksuit cosplay on Air Force 1) was a strong signal for me that nothing untoward would be agreed to behind closed doors.