Interesting article Cindy. Seeing the special op described as 牛逼 made me laugh.
It strikes me that the attack on Venezuela also vindicated what the Far-Left has always believed: that the US is an imperialist power intent on stealing other countries' natural resources.
Do you think that this is a commonly held view in China?
You mention that many Chinese admire Trump. I think this is true. One of my Chinese friends told me that she thinks Trump is doing a good job by removing a socialist dictator, though I'm sure this is a minority view.
But as well as Chinese democrats celebrating the Venezuela raid, isn't it strange that a Communist country like China also contains a strong "right-wing" that expresses an almost Nietzschean admiration of American hard power and strength? Similarly, there is a mocking attitude towards countries like Russia, which is described as a 'weak goose' 弱鹅 by Chinese ultra-nationalists on social media for its poor performance in Ukraine.
The variety of political views within China is quite fascinating, especially when it comes to foreign policy. Where do you think most Chinese people stand on this? Do they lean more to the Left or more to the Right?
Cindy, you nailed the psychological reaction ("Vindication"), but you missed the industrial takeaway.
The "Vindication" isn't just about the hypocrisy of the "Rules-Based Order." We (System B) always knew that was a mirage. The real Vindication is about the Fragility of System A.
The ChinArb Audit:
The Act of Desperation: Stable hegemons don't need to kidnap foreign leaders to secure oil. Only empires facing a Physical Solvency Crisis (Refining Mismatch + Debt Wall) resort to kinetic asset seizure. To Beijing, this wasn't a show of strength; it was a Margin Call.
Kinetic vs. Molecular:
System A (US) demonstrated it can dominate the Kinetic Layer (Missiles/Spec Ops). It acts like a Hunter.
System B (China) is focusing on dominating the Molecular Layer (Supply Chains/Raw Materials). It acts like a Root System.
The Lesson for Beijing: The lesson isn't to build a "Better Hunter" (though military spending will rise). The lesson is to accelerate "Entanglement." You can raid a country (Venezuela), but you cannot raid a supply chain that provides 40% of your own industrial inputs without collapsing your own economy.
Very astute observations Cindy. We live in interesting times for sure.
Interesting article Cindy. Seeing the special op described as 牛逼 made me laugh.
It strikes me that the attack on Venezuela also vindicated what the Far-Left has always believed: that the US is an imperialist power intent on stealing other countries' natural resources.
Do you think that this is a commonly held view in China?
You mention that many Chinese admire Trump. I think this is true. One of my Chinese friends told me that she thinks Trump is doing a good job by removing a socialist dictator, though I'm sure this is a minority view.
But as well as Chinese democrats celebrating the Venezuela raid, isn't it strange that a Communist country like China also contains a strong "right-wing" that expresses an almost Nietzschean admiration of American hard power and strength? Similarly, there is a mocking attitude towards countries like Russia, which is described as a 'weak goose' 弱鹅 by Chinese ultra-nationalists on social media for its poor performance in Ukraine.
The variety of political views within China is quite fascinating, especially when it comes to foreign policy. Where do you think most Chinese people stand on this? Do they lean more to the Left or more to the Right?
Cindy, you nailed the psychological reaction ("Vindication"), but you missed the industrial takeaway.
The "Vindication" isn't just about the hypocrisy of the "Rules-Based Order." We (System B) always knew that was a mirage. The real Vindication is about the Fragility of System A.
The ChinArb Audit:
The Act of Desperation: Stable hegemons don't need to kidnap foreign leaders to secure oil. Only empires facing a Physical Solvency Crisis (Refining Mismatch + Debt Wall) resort to kinetic asset seizure. To Beijing, this wasn't a show of strength; it was a Margin Call.
Kinetic vs. Molecular:
System A (US) demonstrated it can dominate the Kinetic Layer (Missiles/Spec Ops). It acts like a Hunter.
System B (China) is focusing on dominating the Molecular Layer (Supply Chains/Raw Materials). It acts like a Root System.
The Lesson for Beijing: The lesson isn't to build a "Better Hunter" (though military spending will rise). The lesson is to accelerate "Entanglement." You can raid a country (Venezuela), but you cannot raid a supply chain that provides 40% of your own industrial inputs without collapsing your own economy.
The US proved it can kill. China is proving it is too expensive to kill. Ref https://chinarbitrageur.substack.com/p/venezuela-and-the-arctic-two-ways?r=71ctq6
Easy on the PRC MFA, just replace all LTTs related to US to past tense and done.
Interesting piece. Would you say that within the shock was also a sense of intimidation from the effectiveness of the operation?